766
FXUS61 KILN 282350
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW OR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE TIMING ON THIS. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A
BIT OF VARIABILITY ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS.
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH THE TIMING, IF IT IS HEAVY ENOUGH, THAT
SNOW MONDAY MORNING COULD IMPACT THE COMMUTE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. HI-RES MODELS ARE A LOT MORE ROBUST WITH FEATURE. WILL
INCREASE WORDING IN HWO FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A SHIFT TO WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEK. FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN AS REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ON SOME OF THE DAYS AS WELL AND
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO NARROW DOWN THIS POTENTIAL
AS WELL. WILL HIGHLIGHTS THESE THREATS IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH A
LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITY AND CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
DURING THIS TIME. LATER TONIGHT, A SOUTHWARD-MOVING MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT DAY AND CMH/LCK, EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH TO ILN. HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THESE CLOUDS HOLDING
TOGETHER ALL THE WAY TO THE CINCINNATI AREA TERMINALS WITH LAMP
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CEILINGS THERE BELOW 50%. THIS DECK WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT SUNDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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