054
FXUS61 KILN 010520
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1220 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW OR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE TIMING ON THIS. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A
BIT OF VARIABILITY ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS.
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH THE TIMING, IF IT IS HEAVY ENOUGH, THAT
SNOW MONDAY MORNING COULD IMPACT THE COMMUTE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. HI-RES MODELS ARE A LOT MORE ROBUST WITH FEATURE. WILL
INCREASE WORDING IN HWO FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A SHIFT TO WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEK. FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN AS REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ON SOME OF THE DAYS AS WELL AND
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO NARROW DOWN THIS POTENTIAL
AS WELL. WILL HIGHLIGHTS THESE THREATS IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE BREAKING UP TO VFR ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH
SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THIS WILL BE BEYOND THE END OF THE 24HR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW
IN SOME LOCATIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS, PERHAPS WITH RAIN,
WILL THEN OCCUR AT TIMES FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...HATZOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page