905
FXUS61 KILN 021647
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1147 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTENDED WINTRY MIX AND ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR
SOUTH.
2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AREAL AND RIVER
FLOODING LATE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING ACROSS OUR SOUTH A BIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT UNTIL THEN, OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED
THE ADVISORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 1 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD,
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS, EXPECT A WARMING
TREND WITH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME STRONGER MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRYING TO PULL SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
FAIRLY STRONG WIND FIELDS, THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME LOWER
END SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
PWS WILL TREND UP THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN 2-3 TIMES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO AN INCREASED HYDRO THREAT LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MIXED PCPN IS PERSISTING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE THIS
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM, THIS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
LIGHT RAIN HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. IN ADDITION, MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIG DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND
THEN PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH AREAS OF IFR OR
LOWER BR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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