967
FXUS61 KILN 022352
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED MENTIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AREAL AND RIVER
FLOODING LATE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FORMS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD,
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS, EXPECT A WARMING
TREND WITH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME STRONGER MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRYING TO PULL SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
FAIRLY STRONG WIND FIELDS, THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME LOWER
END SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
PWS WILL TREND UP THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN 2-3 TIMES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO AN INCREASED HYDRO THREAT LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THIS BAND OF
RAIN, IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VIS ARE OCCURRING. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO REACH NORTHERN TERMINALS (DAY/CMH/LCK) BEFORE 06Z.
OFF AND ON SHOWERS OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN. BETWEEN
13Z-17Z, SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITH VIS AND CIGS, BUT
THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT WAVE OF STEADY RAIN ARRIVES BETWEEN
15-17Z.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL
FLUCTUATING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE STEADIEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS CVG/LUK. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY PERIOD IS POSSIBLE FOR DAY/ILN/CMH/LCK STARTING
BETWEEN 22-02Z WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, KEPT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
PESSIMISTIC UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.
WINDS ARE EASTERLY THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS, SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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