532
FXUS61 KILN 031757
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH WILL OCCUR ALONG A
NARROW W-E CORRIDOR, WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
2) SEASONABLY WARM AND WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS ENCAPSULED BETWEEN I-70 AND OHIO RVIER WITH
1-2 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BAND WILL SEE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH WITHIN A NUMBER OF POINTS UNDER ITS NARROW AXIS. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE N-S POSITIONING OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHICH HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN LESS
RAINFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE WATCH.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE SFC FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN. GIVEN AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND, MOST RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN RUNOFF WHICH IS THE BASIS THAT NEEDED TO BE WITHIN THIS
WATCH AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF HIGH END AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
OCCUR THROUGH THIS TIME.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES THROUGH THIS NEXT 24
HOUR PERIOD (AND BEYOND). THIS EQUALS OR EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM PWAT
VALUES FROM ILN SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY MARCH, AND WELL ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHICH SITS AROUND .75". THE ZONAL FLOW IN LOWER
LEVELS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE THAT WILL GET WRUNG OUT
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS FRONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID:
SYNOPTICALLY, ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH TROUGHING IN THE WEST. PERSISTENT, DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A TROPICAL AIR MASS, RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WET AIR. FOR PERSPECTIVE, PWATS WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 2-3X THE NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK.
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM THAT WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY
RAINFALL FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS STRAIGHT.
A BROAD COMPLEX OF LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAINFALL IS FOUND OVER
THE CWA, AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO HAVE THE LION'S SHARE GIVEN
A MORE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP UPSTREAM. THIS SLUG OF RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAM GUIDANCE, ENSEMBLES AND HREF
LPMM ALL SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOST PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE
I-70 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN THE LARGEST QPF FOOTPRINT. DURING THIS
NEXT 24-36HR TIME PERIOD, MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT 1-3" OF
RAINFALL, WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS JUST OVER 3".
SEASONABLY, LOWER SOIL PERMEABILITY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FLOOD RISK WITHOUT HAVING A GOOD SPRING THAW YET, NOR A
GREEN-UP WITH VEGETATION. THE BIGGEST RISK WITH THIS PERIOD OF
RAINFALL WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAL FLOODING AND FREQUENT
HYDROPLANING ON ROADWAYS WITH THE STEADY RAINFALL.
IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST
SWATH OF THIS HIGHER QPF ALIGNING ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. OTHER
RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THESE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS MAY SEE INCREASED HYDRO ISSUES, ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS WEEK AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OFFER SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN AS THE
WARM FRONT TRIES TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PLACE THE
ILN CWA MORE IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AND RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY
BUILDING IN. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE SOME STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SEEM TO KEEP
MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ELEVATED WITH SOME RESEMBLANCE OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION MAINTAINING ITSELF DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. COMBINE THIS WITH VERY SATURATED PROFILES, IT WILL LIKELY BE
DIFFICULT FOR HAIL OR WIND TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME
LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE. ML
TOOLS ALSO NOT STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH THIS.
ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE MIDWEST REGION
THURSDAY, OFFERING ANOTHER GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH EVERY ROUND OF RAINFALL, THE
FLOODING RISK WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO RISE. THE MORE CONVECTIVE-TYPE
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE FLASH
FLOODING SCENARIOS AS WELL.
WHILE FRIDAY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE MORE BREAKS IN THE RAIN, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS REMAINS SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL USHER IN A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY. TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO DETAILS ON
TIMING/INTENSITY, BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THAT WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND
RISING RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AREA OF RAIN IS LAYING OUT ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAINFALL RATES IN BROKEN PERIODS OF RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE OHIO
RIVER. ATTM THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATION THAT MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON, AND TAF SITES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR FROM DAY-ILN-
CMH AND LCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED AT
CVG/LUK WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGHER CIGS AND A LACK OF PRECIP,
BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR EVEN WITHOUT ACTIVE RAINFALL.
THIS W-E LINE IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN WRUNG OUT ALONG IT,
THOUGH SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SHIFT IT SOUTHWARD. THE
MODELS THAT ARE DOING SO ARE CAMS AND MY GUESS IS THAT THEIR
SOUTHERN PUSH IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AREA OF UNSTABLE AIR ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO. HOWEVER, THIS SOUTHERN NUDGE OF THE W-E
BOUNDARY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LIKELY SOLUTION ATTM.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING WX
THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ060>064-070>074-
077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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