285
FXUS61 KILN 040000
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
700 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH WILL OCCUR ALONG A
NARROW W-E CORRIDOR, WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
2) AN UNUSUALLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND LOWS 25-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE ENCAPSULATED BETWEEN I-70 AND OHIO RIVER
WITH 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS BAND WILL SEE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH WITHIN A NUMBER OF POINTS UNDER ITS NARROW AXIS. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE N-S POSITIONING OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHICH HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN LESS
RAINFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE WATCH.
MODELS ARE TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE SFC FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN. GIVEN AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND, MOST RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN RUNOFF WHICH IS THE BASIS THAT NEEDED TO BE WITHIN THIS
WATCH AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF HIGH END AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
OCCUR THROUGH THIS TIME.
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES THROUGH THIS NEXT 24
HOUR PERIOD (AND BEYOND). THIS EQUALS OR EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM PWAT
VALUES FROM ILN SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY MARCH, AND WELL ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHICH SITS AROUND .75". THE ZONAL FLOW IN LOWER
LEVELS WILL KEEP A CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE THAT WILL GET WRUNG OUT
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP TO
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE REMAINING TIME THROUGH FRIDAY
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
ATYPICALLY WARM AND WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE WED THROUGH FRI PERIOD HAVE A STRONG CHANCE TO
EXCEED RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS.
ZONAL W TO WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SWLY ON THURS WITH S/W
ENERGY CROSSING AT VARIOUS INTERVALS. ON THURS, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
DIGGING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WILL CROSS EAST LATER IN THE DAY
THURS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW OCCURS SOME DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE
BACK SIDE, WHICH IS THE CAUSE OF THE LULL IN PRECIP VALUES DURING
THIS TIME. AFTER THIS, FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AGAIN WITH AREAS OF S/W
ENERGY CROSSING NE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
THESE VORT MAXIMA LOOK TO SPARK SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON FRI, BUT BE
QUITE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
W-E THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SAT, THOUGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN RISE BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEK.
WITH EVERY ROUND OF RAINFALL, THE FLOODING RISK WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE. THE STRONGER AND DEEPER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS ILN/S AREA. A SERIES OF
WAVES TO RIPPLE ALONG THIS FRONT WITH ENHANCED PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A MID LEVEL WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THIS FRONT IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH THE FRONT SAGGING SLIGHTLY SOUTH. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SHOWERS. A GENERAL
LULL IN PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN
AS THIS WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NUDGE A LITTLE NORTH AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM
THE SOUTH. AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES PCPN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
LATER IN THE AFTN AND INTO EVENING. THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ060>064-070>074-
077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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