578
FXUS61 KILN 041911
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
211 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.
2) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
3) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
4) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) MORE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.
EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA EXTENDING
EAST NEAR THE OHIO-KENTUCKY BORDER. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
IS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT THAT HAS NOT PRECLUDED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL, BUT IT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
CINCINNATI. MCS ACROSS MISSOURI TO START THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
EAST NORTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO ALLOW FOR A STRONG OR EVEN
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM TO OCCUR.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS, EXPECT SOMETHING OF A LULL, ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LIFTED FURTHER NORTH INTO THE AREA.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN A LOW LEVEL JET MOVE MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FOCUS NEAR THE BOUNDARY'S NEW
LOCATION.
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING IN PLACE, THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ADDITION TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN. THE HIGHER QPF AXIS DOES OVERLAP
WITH THE AREA THAT GOT THE MOST RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH
BRINGS EVEN HIGHER CONCERN FOR FLOODING. THUS THE INITIAL FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 18Z THURSDAY. THERE WAS A SLIGHT
REORIENTATION AS THE THREAT LOOKS TO NOT BE AS HIGH FOR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, HOWEVER HEAVIER RAIN COULD BE FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL
OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS REACHING THEIR PEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A VERY STRONG 850 MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE NEAR RECORD FOR MARCH 6. RECORD WARM LOWS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
SHEARED, POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO ACCOMPANY THIS WITH A
COLD FRONT LAGGING AND NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SUITE WHICH WOULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PROBABILITY OF CAPE REACHING 500 J/KG IS ONLY 30 PERCENT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS LOOKS LIMITED WITH VARIOUS AI FORECASTS HAVING THE MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BUT WITH IT BEING PROGRESSIVE, HEAVY RAINFALL IS A MUCH LESSER
CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 4) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH RECORDS ARE A BIT WARMER THAT DAY. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO LIFT SLIGHTLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A WINDOW WHERE THEY LIFT TO MVFR
IN THE CINCINNATI AREA, BUT OVERALL IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING FOR THE ENTIRE TIME, VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
IN MIST/FOG EVEN WHEN SHOWERS ARE NOT OCCURRING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN ON SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ053>056-060>065-
070>074-077>080-082.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>093.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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