115
FXUS61 KILN 060027
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
727 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OVERLAND FLOODING THREAT IS DIMINISHING.
2) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
3) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
4) VERY WARM BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) OVERLAND FLOODING THREAT IS DIMINISHING.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF THE SHOWERS EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON, BUT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIAL AND WILL
ALSO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE AREAS THAT ARE MOST SATURATED. SO NO NEW
ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND THUS THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. FLOODING FROM EARLIER RAINFALL CONTINUES IN
SOME AREAS, WITH WATER SLOWLY RECEDING. AS WATER CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY THROUGH THE SYSTEM, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE RISES ON
RIVERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG ANOMALY IN 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST. ANOMALIES OF 10
TO 15C WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL ALL END UP LEADING TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES, BOTH FOR HIGHS
AND WARM LOWS ON FRIDAY. RECORD WARM LOWS MAY OCCUR ON ON SATURDAY AS
WELL, BUT HIGHS WILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT.
RECORDS FOR MARCH 6:
CVG 74 (1910,1973) 60 (1956)
CMH 76 (1973) 55 (1983)
DAY 74 (1910, 2022) 58 (1946, 1956)
RECORDS FOR MAR 7:
CVG 79 (1974) 58 (1974)
CMH 77 (1974, 1983, 2009) 56 (1974)
DAY 76 (1974, 2000) 56 (2009)
KEY MESSAGE 3) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
SHEARED, POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING ON
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME MINOR, BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION
WILL ALLOW MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS
STAGE, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE FURTHER EAST, BUT IT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, SO NO LINGERING RAINFALL, BUT THERE COULD
BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. IF THAT
OCCURS, THEN THIS COULD POSE A RENEWED FLOODING THREAT, BUT OVER A
SMALLER AREA. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL THREAT WILL EXIST IN AREAS THAT
REMAIN SATURATED WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4) VERY WARM BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED MIDWEEK.
GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TRACKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER A WARM FRONT EXTENDING AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. MORE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR,
SO IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT VARIOUS AI SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALL
INDICATE A RISK IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
IT WILL GET VERY WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS LIKELY BACK IN
THE 70S. DYNAMIC ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW THE 850 MB ANOMALY NOT QUITE
AS STRONG AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TOMORROW, BUT THE AIFS AND AIGEFS ARE
FORECASTING AN ANOMALY OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST TAKING THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. THERE ARE VARIABLE CEILINGS TO
START THE PERIOD. EXPECT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO FILL IN,
LEADING TO PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING. SIGNAL POINTS TO
CEILINGS EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AREA WIDE AND VISIBILITIES WILL
HAVE AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN FOG. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS AXIS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTS KCVG/KLUK INITIALLY AND THEN
PIVOTS NORTH THRU THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS AND MVFR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...AR
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