511
FXUS61 KILN 070027
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
727 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
MAY DEVELOP IN THE PRE-TROUGH ENVIRONMENT. IF STRATUS DEVELOPS AND
REMAINS STUBBORN, THEN INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE VERY LOW. BUT IF THERE
IS SOME HEATING, THEN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT
COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. JOINT PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG CAPE AND 0-6KM
SHEAR AT LEAST 30 KT ON BOTH THE HREF AND REFS MAX OUT AROUND 30 TO
40 PERCENT FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER WEST.
ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAIN.
WHILE THIS WILL BE QUITE TRANSIENT, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOOD CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION MIDWEEK.
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING AN INITIAL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL OCCUR AS THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AI SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS HAVE BEEN DIVERGING, POSSIBLY DUE
TO VARIATIONS IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS, STILL MONITORING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OHIO VALLEY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY MENTION IN THE TAF/S OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE.
SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN AN MVFR CEILING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF THAT
SWEEPS EAST THRU THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AFTER 05Z AND CONTINUE
TO AROUND 13Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...AR
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