504
FXUS61 KILN 070634
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR SATURDAY. INCREASED MESSAGING IN AFD AND HWO
FOR NEXT WEEK MID WEEK SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS
THEY MOVE TO THE EAST AND THEREFORE THERE IS A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO, THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY REGION, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. WHILE DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT, HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT MOVE MOVE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE DARK. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON SATURDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE, IF NOT HIGHER, WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE TEMPERATURES
STAYING IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. DUE TO BLENDED
NATURE, NBM IS NOT CAPTURING THE AMPLIFICATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
THEREFORE CURRENT FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS IT
GETS CLOSER IN TIME INCLUDING COLDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY,
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCREASING WINDS, AND CHANGES IN
PRECIPITATION TYPES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK ON FRIDAY, THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LLWS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR THOSE
SHOWERS AROUND KCMH AND KLCK. WINDS PICK UP ON SATURDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL LINGER
LONGER. THERE WILL THEN BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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