036
FXUS61 KILN 071126
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
626 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR SATURDAY. INCREASED MESSAGING IN AFD AND HWO
FOR NEXT WEEK MID WEEK SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS
THEY MOVE TO THE EAST AND THEREFORE THERE IS A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO, THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY REGION, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. WHILE DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT, HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT MOVE MOVE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE DARK. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON SATURDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE, IF NOT HIGHER, WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE TEMPERATURES
STAYING IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. DUE TO BLENDED
NATURE, NBM IS NOT CAPTURING THE AMPLIFICATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
THEREFORE CURRENT FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS IT
GETS CLOSER IN TIME INCLUDING COLDER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY,
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCREASING WINDS, AND CHANGES IN
PRECIPITATION TYPES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK ON FRIDAY, THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HAVE LLWS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD THIS MORNING.
WINDS PICK UP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFIC VALUES WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. AFTER
THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH, SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGER.
THERE WILL THEN BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE MORE WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THERE WILL POTENTIALLY BE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS WORK
INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT KCMH AND KLCK WHERE MVFR CIGS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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