761
FXUS61 KILN 072329
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS ENDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
PHASE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF HOW THE ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED OFF TO THE EAST.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE AREA. HIGHER CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS 30 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THIS PAST WEEK HAVE PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
NONETHELESS, WILL CONTINUE TO VIGILANTLY MONITOR THESE MORE
VULNERABLE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS INCREASE IN MOST
AI MODEL PROBABILITIES AND SPC ALREADY HAS THE REGION IN A DAY 5
SLIGHT RISK.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS. IN THE WARM SECTOR, GUSTS CAN SOMETIMES BE LIMITED, BUT
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS THAT STRONG IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. WARM GROUND AND MARGINAL AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND AND CLEARING DEVELOPS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JGL
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