811
FXUS61 KILN 081837
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
237 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
ROBUST SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IS
DELAYED UNTIL THE MEDIAN AXIS IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE SUITE. LOW LEVEL JET OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
ADVECT IN RICH MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING BACK OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SIGNAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY PERSISTS.
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
HOWEVER, THAT MAY BE A BIT MUTED BECAUSE OF LOCATION UNCERTAIN SINCE
THERE IS VARIABILITY IN PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST PROBABILITIES BETWEEN
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. 50 TO 60 PERCENT MAY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE, MOST
LIKELY WITHIN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY MORE WINDY LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NBM 24 HOUR QPF IS ONE INCH OR GREATER NORTH AND WEST OF I-71,
BUT FROM A PROBABILITY PERSPECTIVE THE CHANCE OF ONE INCH OR MORE IS
40 TO 50 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT, POTENTIAL FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL IS
NORTH OF THE VULNERABLE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIEST RAINFALL LAST
WEEK. BUT THIS FAR OUT IN TIME, RESOLUTION IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO
FORECAST LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CSU AI EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK
HIGHLIGHTS A BROAD REGION WHICH INCLUDES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. JOINT
PROBABILITY OF CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AND 0-500 MB SHEAR GREATER
THAN 30 KT IS 30 TO 40 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-71. THIS ALIGNS FAIRLY
CLOSELY WITH SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK AS WELL AS PEAK SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES FROM VARIOUS AI OUTLOOKS WHICH HAVE VALUES SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS RUN.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
DECREASE AFTER 0Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BECOME
GUSTY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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