476
FXUS61 KILN 091047
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED KEY MESSAGE FOR FRIDAY SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, FLOODING,
AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING END OF THE
WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, ALONG
WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT
THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS DO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT TUESDAY'S THREAT IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
SEVERE THREAT-TUESDAY NIGHT: FOR THE LOCAL AREA, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE LIKELY LIMITED TO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
DURING THE EVENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS ILLINOIS, NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. IF CONVECTIVE MODES CAN UPSCALE IN THESE AREAS, A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO.
OTHERWISE, WARM- AIR ADVECTION ASCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONG
LLJ WILL RESULT IN THE BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A STRONG CAP WILL DEVELOP AS THE
LLJ BRINGS IN WARMER AIR BETWEEN 700-800 MB. THIS WOULD FAVOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
SEVERE THREAT-WEDNESDAY: ZOOMING OUT, THE SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FAILS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH, REDUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS
FAVORS A FASTER PROGRESSION WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOVING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPLICATE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVER TIME,
HEATING WILL SUPPORT MORE SURFACE- BASED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE AREA
OF CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPDATED JOINT PROBABILITY OF CAPE AND
SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS SAME AREA. ALL SEVERE
MODES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THESE THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY, BRINING TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S, ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT-TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY: PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
STRONGEST JET STREAM FLOW ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS THREAT WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT THE BEST
CHANCE OF FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR
MULTIPLE TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION WITH
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT LIKELY SCATTERED OVER THE AREA.
SOME ORGANIZATION MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY, BUT THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR
REPETITIVE THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE LOCATION.
WIND GUSTS: AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, GENERALLY IN THE 30
TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WIND GUSTS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
2) LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING END OF THE WEEK
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS QUITE DEEP OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, EVEN
THOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED TO THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. WHILE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, THE GREATEST
CONCERN IS FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. PROBABILITY OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND OHIO ARE ALREADY IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 90TH PERCENTILE WINDS WITHIN THE
NBM ENSEMBLE ARE TYPICALLY FAVORED IN THESE SCENARIOS, AND THESE
VALUES ARE AROUND 50 MPH FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BEGIN MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGHEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MVFR VIS. TOWARD THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY, THESE CIGS LIKELY CLIMB BACK TO LOW- END MVFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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