756
FXUS61 KILN 091703
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
103 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, FLOODING,
AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING END OF THE
WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, ALONG
WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
ON TUESDAY, STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
WARM, MOIST AIR FROM GULF THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACCOMPANIED BY DEW POINTS REACHING INTO
THE 60S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS HIGH THETA E AIR WILL
THEN CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND PROGRESSES QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ OVERNIGHT ATOP A WEAK
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND ISOTHERMAL LAYER. THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LLJ AND POSE A HAIL THREAT WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARD OF 40 MPH APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71 DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. INITIALLY, A CAP MAY BE IN PLACE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ERODES THE
CAP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CAP ERODES, STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD POSE A RISK FOR ANY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER (WIND, HAIL,
TORNADO). STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE MULTI CELLULAR/SQUALL LINE DUE
TO MEAN FLOW BEING LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY, BUT OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE STORMS
BEING PROGRESSIVE. STORM CHANCES END WEDNESDAY EVENING AFTER FROPA.
2) LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING END OF THE WEEK
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
ANOTHER STRONG, COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE, THE MAIN FOCUS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BEGIN MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGHEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MVFR VIS. TOWARD THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY, THESE CIGS LIKELY CLIMB BACK TO LOW- END MVFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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