014
FXUS61 KILN 100630
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
230 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, FLOODING,
AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING END OF THE
WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, ALONG
WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERE THREAT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD FORMED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR THIS UPSCALED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OHIO, BUT THE ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH
TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ANY TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOT THE ELEVATED CONVECTION DISCUSSED NEXT.
ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG LLJ FORMING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARD BEING HAIL. GIVEN THE STRONG LLJ, THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF ASSISTING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WEDNESDAY SEVERE THREAT: BY THE MORNING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
REMNANT CLUSTERS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY ONGOING OVER THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT STILL LOCATED IN NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA. THROUGH
THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH RENEWED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY FORM TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71. ALL HAZARDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT,
EVEN IF INSTABILITY IS A BIT LOWER. THE ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT WITH THE
FRONT WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WIND THREAT: AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE STRONG LLJ WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE MORE EFFECTIVELY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40
MPH. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING: LOCATIONS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WOULD SUPPORT RENEWED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST PUSH WITH THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO WARRANT AN AREA WIDE FLOOD WATCH.
2) LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING END OF THE WEEK
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
ANOTHER STRONG, COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE, THE MAIN FOCUS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT SOME
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES. HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR BETWEEN 10-16Z TODAY. MVFR/IFR
CIGS THEN LIFT INTO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW.
FOR THE CVG TAF, HAVE REINTRODUCED MVFR CIGS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTING, AND ALSO ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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