418
FXUS61 KILN 101034
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, FLOODING,
AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING END OF THE
WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, ALONG
WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERE THREAT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD FORMED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR THIS UPSCALED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OHIO, BUT THE ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH
TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ANY TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND NOT THE ELEVATED CONVECTION DISCUSSED NEXT.
ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG LLJ FORMING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARD BEING HAIL. GIVEN THE STRONG LLJ, THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF ASSISTING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WEDNESDAY SEVERE THREAT: BY THE MORNING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
REMNANT CLUSTERS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY ONGOING OVER THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT STILL LOCATED IN NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA. THROUGH
THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL WORK SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH RENEWED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY FORM TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71. ALL HAZARDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, ENOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT,
EVEN IF INSTABILITY IS A BIT LOWER. THE ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT WITH THE
FRONT WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WIND THREAT: AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE STRONG LLJ WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE MORE EFFECTIVELY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40
MPH. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING: LOCATIONS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WOULD SUPPORT RENEWED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST PUSH WITH THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO WARRANT AN AREA WIDE FLOOD WATCH.
2) LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING END OF THE WEEK
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
ANOTHER STRONG, COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE, THE MAIN FOCUS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW-LEVEL HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED THIS MORNING, BUT WITH SOME DELAYS
ON MVFR CIGS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE DID NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. CONTINUED THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS FOR TEMPORARY
PERIOD IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF. MVFR/IFR CIGS THEN LIFT
INTO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE EVIDENT AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WITH LLWS BECOMING LIKELY BY AROUND 06Z. THE STRENGTHENING
JET SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF. THESE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED WITHIN
PROB30 GROUPS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AT ONE PARTICULAR
SITE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY SO TEMPO GROUPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE 12-18
HOUR WINDOW. OUTSIDE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z WED-00Z THU. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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