120
FXUS61 KILN 110628
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
228 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE KEY MESSAGE 1 FOR
UPDATED DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER, FLOODING, AND
GUSTY WINDS.
2) WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-50 MPH EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
EVENING. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CENTRAL / CENTRAL OHIO WITH ISOLATED GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
55 MPH.
3) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY. MUCH COLDER ARRIVES AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER,
FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
MORNING SEVERE THREAT:
A DISORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH INDIANA
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT
BETWEEN 4-7AM. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REORGANIZE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, QUICK SPIN UP TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE SITUATION BECOMES COMPLICATED DUE TO THE NEW
THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY ELEVATED, DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE.
THIS WOULD DISRUPT ATTEMPTS AT ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.
NEVERTHELESS, THESE NEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. THE RADAR IS LIKELY GOING TO BE QUITE
COMPLEX AND CROWDED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING GIVEN THE ABOVE
SITUATION.
AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT:
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE NEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
ORGANIZATION IF UNINTERRUPTED BY OTHER STORMS. ALL HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, AND THESE WOULD LIKELY POSE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING A MORE CONCENTRATED TORNADO THREAT. AT THIS TIME,
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR STAND THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING THIS TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A BIT LOWER OF A THREAT,
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ELIMINATED UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. THIS OCCURS THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
WIND THREAT (UPDATED 12:15 AM): CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT TWO
PERIODS OF NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED WIND GUSTS MAY REACH ADVISORY
LEVEL THRESHOLDS. THE FIRST WILL COME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS
OF WIND BETWEEN ONE AND TWO THOUSAND FEET WILL MIX DOWN OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WINDS MAY NOT LAST LONG AS THE SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA, AND MAY BE SUDDEN IN NATURE FOLLOWING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE THROUGH. THE SECOND PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE DIURNAL MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
EFFECTIVELY MIX 35 TO 45 MPH WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT WILL END AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS WILL STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED (25-30 MPH) AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT: GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS, HOWEVER, THE LACK IN
CONFIDENCE IN ONE PARTICULAR AREA CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD
WATCH. BACK-BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS AND WEST TO EAST ALIGNED SEGMENTS
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING. HREF DOES HIGHLIGHT A FEW LOCALIZED AREA OF 2-3" SO
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, ALONG WITH THE AREA WIDE
SEVERE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-50 MPH EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CENTRAL / CENTRAL OHIO WITH ISOLATED GUSTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING 55 MPH.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO ADVERTISE
ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, PRIMARILY NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER. PROBS FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ARE
BETWEEN 30 TO 70 PERCENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. GUSTS OVER 55 MPH ARE
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR WEST-CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN THE HWO.
KEY MESSAGE 3) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. MUCH COLDER ARRIVES AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE. OTHERWISE,
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO PROJECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE GOING TO LINGER INTO MONDAY. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST SHOCK TO THE
SYSTEM WILL BE THE RESURGENCE OF COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL WITH FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STARTING TO SEE SOME INITIAL SIGNS OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD INCREASE AND INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO DAYBREAK.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AROUND AREA TAF SITES, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
PERIOD OF VFR. LLWS CONTINUES TO BE MENTIONED GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE PROVIDES PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30KTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND THEN PEAK OUT BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME SPORADIC
VARIABILITY WITH WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD INSIDE AND OUTSIDE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH THESE GUSTS, SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY - ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS IT PUSHES
EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU KDAY AROUND 20/21Z
AND THRU KILN/KCVG/KLUK AROUND 21Z/22Z AND THRU KCMH BY 23Z. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF 40 KT WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OUTSIDE
OF STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES END WITH THE FROPA BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 40 KTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...JDR/MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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