119
FXUS61 KILN 191039
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2) COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
OHIO TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING, SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DOWN THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST, WHERE THERE IS DEEPER LIFT FROM MID
LEVEL ENERGY, TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
BUT EVEN THERE, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER SCANT. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN NBM WHILE
THE REFS PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT LOWER. THIS SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN ERODING A CAP.
IT APPEARS THAT SOME STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE EARLY
SATURDAY. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES JUST
A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY. BUT WARMING WILL RESUME ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
BREEZY AGAIN, WITH GUSTS A BIT HIGHER THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2) COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FORCING LOOKS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING COMPARED TO FRIDAY'S FRONT. ONCE AGAIN, IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEVELOPMENTAL ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WITH BETTER FORCING, THE CHANCE
OF RAIN IS GREATER WITH THE HIGHER POPS EAST AND SOUTH OF I-71. JOINT
PROBABILITY OF CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AND BULK WIND SHEAR GREATER
THAN 30 KT IS MEAGER, LESS THAN 30 PERCENT, WITH THAT RELATIVE
MAXIMUM FOCUSED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. OVERALL, ANY THREAT LOOKS LOW AT
THIS POINT, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE RECENT AI SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS
HAVE COME IN A BIT MORE RAMBUNCTIOUS.
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT IS COLDER THAN THE FRIDAY FRONT. SO
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS 18Z.
THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS WITH MORE HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 0Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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