589
FXUS61 KILN 191851
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
251 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2) ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH, WITH ONLY A HINT OF SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL OHIO SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE 3K NAM HAS STORM INITIATION DURING THE EVENING
BASED ON SBCAPE AROUND 500J ACROSS OUR EAST; WHILE THE HRRR KEEPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MIXED OUT AND NO STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF CONVECTION
DOES DEVELOP, ROBUST SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LEADS TO A SMALL
PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE STORMS (THUS, THE SPC MARGINAL THREAT).
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2) WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
AHEAD OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT, MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH
FROPA RANGING FROM EARLY EVENING TO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS TIMING AND OTHER FACTORS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
EVENING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
PERHAPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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