042
FXUS61 KILN 200636
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
236 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS
WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY, AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS MIDDAY. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION COULD RESULT IN CONVECTION EAST OF THE REGION, BUT THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THAT CAN BUILD FURTHER WEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, WITH THE REFS COMING IN WITH EVEN LOWER CHANCES
THAN THE NBM AND HREF. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR
IN THE AREA THAT IT WOULD BE ELEVATED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL, BUT
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BUT THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY, TAPPING INTO VERY
WARM AIRMASS THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
STILL A LITTLE ROOM FOR AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WHICH WOULD THEN
APPROACH RECORDS THAT ARE IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY DURING THE DAY, LIKELY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN GUSTS ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT. GUIDANCE SUITE
STILL SHOWING SOME VARIATION ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS MOVES THROUGH. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
NARROW WINDOW WHERE THE CAP IS QUITE WEAK TOWARDS PEAK HEATING. IF
THE FRONT IS ALREADY IN THE AREA AT THAT POINT, THEN IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME STORMS MAY FORM, WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN DRY
UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANY THREAT WITH THAT WOULD BE MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY DROP TEMPERATURES A
BIT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15Z. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS 00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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