983
FXUS61 KILN 210647
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
247 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT, THE AIRMASS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
ON SUNDAY SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AS PART OF THE VERY WARM
AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS GETS ADVECTED EASTWARD (850 MB
UP TO 18C). NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CINCINNATI COULD OVERACHIEVE
ON HIGHS AND APPROACH THE RECORD FOR MARCH 22 (85 IN 1907).
PROBABILITY OF NEARING A RECORD AT DAYTON OR COLUMBUS IS MUCH LOWER
BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE REMAIN DISCREPANCIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, BUT ON AVERAGE IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE AT
LEAST TO I-70 BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED,
ALTHOUGH THAT CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL BY PEAK HEATING. CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
COUNTIES AND THAT WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEN THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CELLS, WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE RESPECTABLE. THE WINDOW FOR THE THREAT WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IS MEDIUM AT
BEST. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODELS WHICH SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THERE COULD STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IF THAT
WERE THE CASE, BUT THE FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT THIS OCCURS, THE
LOWER THE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY BEING
AROUND 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SLOW MODERATION
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STRATUS IN NORTHERN OHIO MAY DEVELOP INTO THE COLUMBUS AREA TOWARDS
12Z. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
FOR A FEW HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM, BUT KEPT CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SOUTH OF THE STRATUS
DECK APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL, AND IF THAT OCCURS IT MAY NOT HAPPEN
UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. BEYOND THAT, WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH WINDS
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST WILL VEER AROUND TO EASTERLY TOWARDS 12Z
AND THEN CONTINUE TO VEER UNTIL BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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