568
FXUS61 KILN 211043
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT, THE AIRMASS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
ON SUNDAY SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AS PART OF THE VERY WARM
AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS GETS ADVECTED EASTWARD (850 MB
UP TO 18C). NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CINCINNATI COULD OVERACHIEVE
ON HIGHS AND APPROACH THE RECORD FOR MARCH 22 (85 IN 1907).
PROBABILITY OF NEARING A RECORD AT DAYTON OR COLUMBUS IS LOWER
BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE REMAIN DISCREPANCIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, BUT ON AVERAGE IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE AT
LEAST TO I-70 BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED,
ALTHOUGH THAT CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL BY PEAK HEATING. CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
COUNTIES AND THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEN THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CELLS,
WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF SHEAR FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE QUITE RESPECTABLE. THE WINDOW FOR THE THREAT WILL BE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IS MEDIUM AT
BEST. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODELS WHICH SUGGEST THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. THERE COULD STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IF THAT
WERE THE CASE, BUT THE FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT THIS OCCURS, THE
LOWER THE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY BEING
AROUND 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SLOW MODERATION
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STRATUS IS APPROACHING THE COLUMBUS AREA FROM THE NORTH. IT APPEARS
THAT IT IS NOT GOING TO GET VERY FAR SOUTH, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCMH
BUT NOT KLCK. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE, DO NOT LIKE INCLUDING IFR
CEILINGS, BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY IN SPACE AND TIME, FELT IT WAS
PRUDENT TO INCLUDE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
BEYOND THAT, VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH MORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BE VEERING THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH NORTHEAST
TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHICH MAY BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO KDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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