337
FXUS61 KILN 221736
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL, WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL, REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THE STORMS THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL OHIO.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE MODERATING AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT, WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL OHIO.
NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL, WITH A /VERY/ WARM LL
AIRMASS ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING FRONT, WHICH IS
ATTACHED TO A WEAK SFC WAVE TRANSLATING TO THE SE INTO THE INTERIOR
NE CONUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ELONGATED SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM PA THROUGH NRN OH TO MO, WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
YIELDING ENHANCED SW LL FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS USHERING
IN SOME OF THE /VERY/ WARM AIR CENTERED WELL W OF THE OH VLY INTO THE
LOCAL AREA, WITH THE FRONT STILL POSITIONED JUST TO THE N OF THE ILN
FA AS OF THIS WRITING. IN FACT, IN THE WELL-MIXED WARM SECTOR, DEWPOINTS
ARE MIXING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S, WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S,
STEEPENING LL LAPSE RATES, DRYING OUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND RAISING
LCLS.
THERE REMAINS GOOD SUPPORT THAT A STOUT CAP IS GOING TO HOLD THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
STORM ACTIVITY VERY LIMITED THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM. ADDITIONALLY, THE
WELL-MIXED BL AND DECREASE IN LL MOISTURE, WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S (OPPOSED TO THE LOWER 60S), IS FURTHER
LIMITING/DELAYING CI LOCALLY, SUGGESTING THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT (WHERE THE BEST LL
CONVERGENCE WILL EVOLVE), LENDING ITSELF TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
SEVERE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING.
CERTAINLY THERE ARE SEVERAL ENVIRONMENT FACTORS THAT POINT TOWARD A
SEVERE THREAT -- MOST NOTABLY A /VERY/ ROBUST EML (WITH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES >7.5C/KM) CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE MUCAPE (>1500 J/KG)
IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD LL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (EVEN THOUGH IT
IS A BIT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL). THERE IS GOOD SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE
COLUMN, SUGGESTING A COLLOCATION OF MODERATE INSTBY WITH MORE-THAN-
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
ALONG OR PERHAPS JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELONGATED HODOS
WITH IMPRESSIVE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT, EVEN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT (I.E. ELEVATED), WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT (POTENTIALLY ~2"
IN DIAMETER). OVERALL, DO THINK THAT THE CAP HOLDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THAT /IF/ STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT
(FAVORED NEAR I-70 FROM NEAR DAYTON TO COLUMBUS ABOUT/AFTER 6 PM),
THAT THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF I-70/I-71
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OH WHERE THE BEST LL CONVERGENCE WILL
RESIDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
INITIAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, WITH A MUCH
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, THIS
CONDITIONAL SETUP ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
BE A BIT ISOLATED IN COVERAGE, OWING TO LACK OF COVERAGE OF STORMS
IN THE MORE SUPPORTIVE (PRE-FRONTAL) ENVIRONMENT (PRIOR TO 22Z).
IN ADDITION TO STORMS ALONG/JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OH FROM ABOUT 22Z-02Z, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT (02Z-06Z),
BUT ALAS THAT IS AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL BE UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY
NOTABLE WIND THREAT. GIVEN MAINTENANCE OF SOME STEEPER MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LL BOUNDARY, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS A
GREATER PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA LATER INTO THE EVENING (I.E. AFTER
02Z), BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADIC
THREAT WOULD BE ESSENTIALLY ZERO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. DO
THINK THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR THE LOCAL AREA IS GOING TO
BE MORE LIMITED THAN PERHAPS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
ISO COVERAGE OF NEAR-FRONT STORMS. BUT EVEN SO, SOME LARGE HAIL
THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE EVENING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT BEFORE CONDITIONS TREND DRY AREA-WIDE BY 06Z AS MUCH
COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE N. THIS WILL OCCUR AMIDST A
STIFF NORTHERLY WIND OF 10-20 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE.
FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SW WINDS OF 15-20KTS, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30KTS, ARE EXPECTED IN THE WELL-MIXED WARM
SECTOR.
DAYTIME HIGHS MAY APPROACH RECORDS, PARTICULARLY AT KCVG, WHERE
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEARER AND MIXING DEPTH WILL BE GREATER. FOR
REFERENCE, HERE ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR 3/22: CVG 85 (1907), DAY 84
(1907), CMH 85 (2012).
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODERATING AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM N TO S,
RESPECTIVELY. SUBFREEZING AIR TEMPS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 AND IN OTHER
RURAL/SHELTERED LOCALES ACROSS THE ILN FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE GRADUALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, GOING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING ALONG/AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT.
A SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS THE PSEUDO-WARM FRONT PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAYTIME THURSDAY BEFORE A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE
TRANSLATES INTO THE OH VLY BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLER AIR AGAIN SETTLES
BACK INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT KIND OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, IF ANY, MAY
EVOLVE THURSDAY EVENING. BUT THE SETUP WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH VFR CU EXPECTED TO SPROUT ABOUT NEAR KDAY/KCMH/KLCK BY 22Z. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 23Z, AT WHICH POINT ISO TSRA
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR I-70 FROM NEAR KDAY TO KCMH BEFORE ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DRIFTS TO THE ESE THROUGH 01Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30
AT KCMH/KLCK DURING THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-06Z, WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING BEING LARGE HAIL. CIGS/VSBY WILL GO FROM VFR TO MVFR
ALONGSIDE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER ACTIVITY, WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z-07Z. ALSO, BRIEF IFR VSBY WITH
TSRA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. DID NOT HAVE VET CONFIDENCE TO
ADD IFR CIGS EITHER.
THERE WILL BE A /VERY/ SHARP WIND DIRECTION CHANGE WITH THE FROPA,
GOING FROM SW AT 12-15KTS TO NNE AT 12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AROUND 23Z AND
KDAY, 00Z AT KCMH/KLCK/KILN, AND KCVG/KLUK AROUND 02Z. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL EVOLVE AFTER 06Z IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH MVFR
CIGS LINGERING INTO THE DAYTIME MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT
AROUND 15Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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