493
FXUS61 KILN 231050
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GAVE A LITTLE MORE DETAIL ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, RISING TO
ABOVE ON WED/THU. STORMS OVERNIGHT THURS LOOK TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT,
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A COLD DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THURS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, EXITING IN THE MORNING ALONG AND S OF THE OHIO.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL SEE READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WILL BE FOUND TUES/TUES NIGHT, AND THEN READINGS WILL JUMP BACK
ABOVE NORMAL WED, MORESO ON THURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE MORNING. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ALONG A
SW-NE FRONT IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO THE
SOUTH, AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND BEHIND IT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. STORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE EVENING NORTH OF I-70 AND REACH THE
OHIO RIVER A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, ANY ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER FOR MOST OF THE CWA, BUT COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING ALONG AND S OF THE OHIO RIVER.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO INDICATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
FRONT AND THE FOLLOWING STORMS. GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF IT AND THE SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND IT, STRONG STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR, BUT STORM TYPE AND OVERALL POTENTIAL IS YET TO BE
SEEN.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO LOWER LMICH TODAY WILL KEEP A GOOD CLIP
OF NNW WIND OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTS TO 25KT AND CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. LOW STRATUS WILL HANG THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND GRADUALLY LIFT THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD ONLY SCATTER OUT AT
CVG/LUK WHILE REMAINING BKN-OVC FOR REMAINING TERMINALS. THE STRATOCU
HERE SHOULD LIFT AOA 4KFT LATER THIS MORNING AND CLEAR TOWARDS
NIGHTFALL.
CLOSER TO SUNSET, THE HIGH WILL BE WORKING INTO NRN OH AND WIND WILL
TAPER DOWN TO UNDER 10KT WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AS WINDS BACK TO THE EAST AND SETTLE AROUND
5KT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT, DROPPING EVEN LOWER AT CMH/LCK CLOSER TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page