504
FXUS61 KILN 232356
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
756 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR PARTS OF
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. SENSITIVE OR EARLY-BLOOM VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED BY THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT, WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE WITH THIS SETUP.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AMIDST QUITE A BIT OF
EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER. SKIES WILL TREND A BIT CLEARER LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, SO TEMPS WILL MAKE A LATE-DAY RALLY AS CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAYTIME, ESPECIALLY
NEAR/W OF I-75. SUBFREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 AND IN OTHER
RURAL/SHELTERED LOCALES ACROSS THE ILN FA. SKIES WILL TREND CLEARER
AFTER SUNSET, BUT MAY LINGER A BIT INTO THE NIGHT IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL OH. LL FLOW WILL SUBSIDE AS IT GOES MORE OUT OF THE E BY
LATE TONIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
AREA-WIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME WAA-INDUCED SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE LOCAL AREA (FAVORED NEAR THE TRI-STATE) AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THETA-E ADVECTION RAMPS UP THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY
BEFORE A FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE, NUDGES INTO THE OH
VLY BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ENE-TO-WSW ORIENTED FRONT WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLER AIR AGAIN SETTLES BACK INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FROM A PATTERN PERSPECTIVE, THE SETUP THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEND ITSELF TO AT LEAST /SOME/ SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VLY, PARTICULARLY N OF THE OH RVR. VARIOUS ML
DATASETS, AS WELL AS SPC SWODY4, CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF
THE REGION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH S/W ENERGY DIGGING S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE OH VLY DURING THIS TIME. THIS
BETTER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, COMBINED WITH A MOISTENING LL PROFILE
LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SB-INSTBY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD-IMPINGING FRONT, SHOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD, POTENTIALLY
ORGANIZED, STORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT PAST 00Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS,
EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE ILN FA TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY WANE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT LATER INTO THE
NIGHT, CERTAINLY THE DATA SUGGESTS A PARAMETER SPACE CONDUCIVE TO
STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT
NEAR THE FROPA. STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE AND SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY, WITH
CLOUD-BEARING FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FOCUS FOR LIFT. THIS LENDS
ITSELF TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TRAINING STORMS (I.E. STORMS
MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS), BUT SPECIFIC DETAILS IN THIS
REALM, AS WELL THE PRIMARY TIMING AND SPECIFIC FAVORED HAZARDS, WILL
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS IN THE COMING DAYS. CERTAINLY THE OVERLAP OF
FAIRLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTBY AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS S LATE INTO THE NIGHT. SUPPOSE
THAT A BRIEF RA/SN MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE INFILTRATION OF
MUCH COLDER AIR IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD. STILL HAVE
SOME STRATOCU HANGING AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK, LEAVING MAINLY SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND DAYTIME TUESDAY. ANY WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AROUND DARK,
LEAVING NORTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS, ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...BPP
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