204
FXUS61 KILN 242346
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
746 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THAT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
OHIO SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL - RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MARK THE BE BEGINNING OF A WARM UP WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AND
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PASS OFF TO
THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING. IN STABILITY IS LIMITED AND ELEVATED AND
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
IN THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF ILN/S AREA STAYS DRY UNTIL SURFACE COLD
FRONT SLIPS INTO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP OVER 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST. THESE READINGS
WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS.
THE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY 3/26
CVG 82 SET IN 1907
DAY 81 SET IN 1907
CMH 80 SET IN 1907
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR READINGS TO WARM ABOVE THE NBM MEAN OF 80
AT CVG, 79 AT DAY, AND 78 AT CMH. THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE EXCEEDS
THESE RECORDS BY 1 DEGREE. ALSO, THE ECMWF MOS IS AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE NBM MEAN GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS PUSH SOUTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
INTO ILN/S NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN SOUTH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THAT A CAP WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE STRONG LOW-
LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ML GUIDANCE AND
ANALOGS POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SPC/S PLACEMENT OF A SLIGHT
RISK. AT THIS TIME EXPECT LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
THE FRONT EXISTS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING IN THE MORNING. MUCH COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPILLING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...BPP
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