709
FXUS61 KILN 251849
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
249 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET TIME FOR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. COLDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
2) THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THAT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EXISTS. ALSO, A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL
EXIST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SOUTHERLY WIND HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS MARKS THE BE BEGINNING OF A WARM UP
WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH EAST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHWEST.
AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AND FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND ELEVATED, SO SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THIS
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PASS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
IN THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF ILN/S AREA STAYS DRY UNTIL SURFACE COLD
FRONT SLIPS INTO THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
OVER 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST. THESE READINGS WILL APPROACH OR
POSSIBLY EXCEED RECORD HIGHS.
THE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY 3/26
CVG 82 SET IN 1907
DAY 81 SET IN 1907
CMH 80 SET IN 1907
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR READINGS TO WARM ABOVE THE NBM MEAN VALUES
OF 82 AT CVG, 80 AT DAY, AND 76 AT CMH. THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE
EXCEEDS THE RECORDS BY 4 AT CVG, 3 AT DAY, AND 3 AT CMH. THERE HAS
BEEN A TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THESE VALUES OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS.
THE FRONT EXISTS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING THROUGH LATE MORNING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO
THE AREA WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS PUSH SOUTH THRU THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
INTO ILN/S NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN SOUTH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT A CAP WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ML GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, AND THIS WILL AID
DESTABILIZATION, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE STRONG
DEEP-LAYER FLOW, HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE ELONGATED/STRAIGHT.
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE
EAST-WEST BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING (MOST LIKELY JUST NORTH OF
ILN/S FA). THE BEST THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND POTENTIAL
TORNADOES LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS ILN/S NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE
EVENING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE - IF CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP A LITTLE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE,
EVEN WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT. THE STORMS WEAKEN AND SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AS THE
STORMS AND FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND APPROACH
THE OHIO RIVER.
PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 275 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SINK SOUTH QUICKLY, WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS, AND MEAN FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED STRIPES OF
2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OBSERVING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO
20 KTS DECREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.
AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AND FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND ELEVATED, SO SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PASS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. IN THE WARM SECTOR, CLOUDS DECREASE LATER THURSDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD BE INHIBITED DUE
TO A CAP UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD - THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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