476
FXUS61 KILN 261918
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
318 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM WORDING
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD WARMING TODAY. COLDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
2) THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACT THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE EXISTS. ALSO, A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-70.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED
MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MID MORNING.
IN THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF ILN/S AREA STAYS DRY UNTIL SURFACE COLD
FRONT SLIPS INTO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS
INCREASED WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. ALSO, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CLOUDS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THIS COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH OR POSSIBLY EXCEED RECORD HIGHS.
THE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY 3/26
CVG 82 SET IN 1907
DAY 81 SET IN 1907
CMH 80 SET IN 1907
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING THROUGH LATE MORNING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE
INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT ILN/S FORECAST
AREA IS CURRENTLY CAPPED IN THE WARM SECTOR. ILN WILL BE PUTTING UP A
SPECIAL 20Z BALLOON RELEASE TO SAMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
STRONG MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EXIST THRU THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK QUICKLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST OFFERING HIGH FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO ILN/S NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS CAPPING WARM LAYER BETWEEN 8H
AND 7H WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THEREFORE, EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ML GUIDANCE AND
ANALOGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THE STORMS TONIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE EAST-WEST BOUNDARY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING (MOST LIKELY JUST NORTH OF ILN/S FA). THE BEST THREAT FOR
POTENTIAL TORNADOES LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS ILN/S NORTHERN COUNTIES
EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE - IF CONVECTION WERE TO
DEVELOP A LITTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, AND
THIS WILL AID DESTABILIZATION, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED.
GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW, HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE ELONGATED/STRAIGHT.
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE, EVEN WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATER EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT, THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE LOOKS
TO EVOLVE TO LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT. THE STORMS WEAKEN AND SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AS THE STORMS
AND FRONT SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND APPROACH THE
OHIO RIVER.
PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE IN EXCESS OF 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THE FRONT LOOKS TO SINK SOUTH
QUICKLY, WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS, AND MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED STRIPES OF 2-3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL. HREF LPMM ALSO BACKS THIS POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL STRIPES, WITH THE FAVORED REGION NORTH OF I-70. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IN THE WARM SECTOR VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND HAIL ACROSS THE KDAY, KCMH
AND KLCK. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH FARTHER
SOUTH AND APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER. IN ADDITION, A PERIOD OF LLWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page