925
FXUS61 KILN 270556
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SLIGHT INCREASE TO RAINFALL NORTH OF I-70.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD WARMING TODAY. COLDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
2) THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IMPACT THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE EXISTS. ALSO, A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-70.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED
MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MID MORNING.
IN THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF ILN/S AREA STAYS DRY UNTIL SURFACE COLD
FRONT SLIPS INTO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS
INCREASED WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. ALSO, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CLOUDS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THIS COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH OR POSSIBLY EXCEED RECORD HIGHS.
THE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY 3/26
CVG 82 SET IN 1907
DAY 81 SET IN 1907
CMH 80 SET IN 1907
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING THROUGH LATE MORNING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE
INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT ILN/S FORECAST
AREA IS CURRENTLY CAPPED IN THE WARM SECTOR. ILN WILL BE PUTTING UP A
SPECIAL 20Z BALLOON RELEASE TO SAMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
STRONG MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EXIST THRU THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK QUICKLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST OFFERING HIGH FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO ILN/S NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS CAPPING WARM LAYER BETWEEN 8H
AND 7H WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THEREFORE, EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ML GUIDANCE AND
ANALOGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THE STORMS TONIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE EAST-WEST BOUNDARY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING (MOST LIKELY JUST NORTH OF ILN/S FA). THE BEST THREAT FOR
POTENTIAL TORNADOES LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS ILN/S NORTHERN COUNTIES
EARLY IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE - IF CONVECTION WERE TO
DEVELOP A LITTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, AND
THIS WILL AID DESTABILIZATION, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED.
GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW, HODOGRAPHS ALSO ARE ELONGATED/STRAIGHT.
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE, EVEN WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATER EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT, THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE LOOKS
TO EVOLVE TO LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT. THE STORMS WEAKEN AND SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES AS THE STORMS
AND FRONT SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND APPROACH THE
OHIO RIVER.
PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE IN EXCESS OF 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THE FRONT LOOKS TO SINK SOUTH
QUICKLY, WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS, AND MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED STRIPES OF 2-3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL. HREF LPMM ALSO BACKS THIS POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL STRIPES, WITH THE FAVORED REGION NORTH OF I-70. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF KILN) AT TAF ISSUANCE, WITH
MOSTLY IFR AND LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM MO TO NY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH. THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT WHICH IS STARTING TO PROGRESS INTO KY. WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND ARE GUSTING 20-30 KTS IN
MOST PLACES. AS PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH, SO SHOULD THE
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS REGIME THEN
PERSISTS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, WITH THE GUSTINESS OF THE WINDS
ALSO EASING.
OUTLOOK...THE NEXT THREAT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ON MONDAY AND
LASTING INTO THE WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...JKL
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