132
FXUS61 KILN 272215
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
615 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN ENDS EARLY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
2) A WARM UP WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK,
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
POST FRONTAL RAIN LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL COME TO AN END BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN
ORIGIN BUILDING SOUTHEAST - BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
THIS HIGH WILL OFFER COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
THESE READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS BY
SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S, A FEW
DEGREES BELOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
INITIALLY BACKS MORE ZONAL MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AND MOISTURE RETURNS WITH A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BRING DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEEK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
FRONT INITIALLY SLIPS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN A WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVEL THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES
OF 48 HOUR RAINFALL ABOVE 1 INCH IS 50 TO 60 PERCENT, WITH
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL ABOVE 2 INCHES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESIDUAL BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING, WITH AN EVENTUAL SCATTERING OUT FROM NW TO SE BY ABOUT
03Z OR SO. A FEW/SCT VFR CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAYTIME BEFORE A LATE-DAY CLEARING TREND EVOLVES AS THE LL
MOISTURE SCOURS OUT WITH RETURN/SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, GOING TO 7-9KTS BY 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDING EVEN
FURTHER TO 5KTS OR LESS PAST 15Z. LIGHT/VRB WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING MORE DECIDEDLY OUT OF THE S PAST
00Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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