682
FXUS61 KILN 291911
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
311 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
MIXING. ADJUSTED POPS LOWER THIS EVENING. INCREASED WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
2) A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK WESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FAVORABLE
MIXING HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDLY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS
CREATED INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY EARLY
EVENING AS WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND MODEST 8H JET OF 40-45KTS LEADS TO ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT. NBM POPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH, ESPECIALLY
EARLY GIVEN DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TO A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
ONLY A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER. THE BEST COVERAGE OF A SHOWER
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF
THE I-71 CORRIDOR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING. A LOW CHANCE
THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE VERY LOW WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER - HAVE INCREASED
WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON UP TO 30 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A FRONTAL SAGGING INTO THE ILN FA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS FAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. BETTER FORCING AND A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
PWAT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 200% OF SEASONAL NORMS, COMBINED WITH
THE OSCILLATING FRONT, WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR EPISODES OF BOTH
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FRONT CONTINUING TO PIVOT
THRU THE REGION THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY, SUGGESTING CONTINUED ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME - THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE OFFERS
DRIER WEATHER LATER SUNDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL 1-3 INCHES
DURING THIS TIME ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE
MAY BE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN CONVECTION.
AS THE WEATHER UNDERGOES A PATTERN CHANGE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LEAD TO ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE THIS EVENING FROM A MID DECK, WITH SOME
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-11Z, MAINLY OVER KCMH AND
KLCK. A PROB30 HAS BEEN ADDED AT THESE SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING - IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE
TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THEN GUST UP TO 25 KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT BETWEEN 04Z-12Z.
OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY.
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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