227
FXUS61 KILN 311033
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH LIKELY
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
TODAY, NEARING DAILY STANDING RECORDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOORS ITEMS. ADDITIONALLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON,
APPROACHING DAILY STANDING RECORDS.
2) A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK S/W PIVOTS E
THROUGH THE NRN OH VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A SFC WAVE
EJECTING E THROUGH THESE AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE
THE ILN FA SQUARELY IN AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR, WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SE FLANK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS AMIDST DIURNALLY-ENHANCED MIXING, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN H8 LLJ ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 35KTS WILL DEVELOP FROM
SW TO NE THROUGH THE OH VLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY FROM
IL/IN INTO NRN OH. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL MIXING WON'T BE
PARTICULARLY DEEP, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN 30-35KT WINDS
NEAR/NW OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SCT/BKN CU TO CONTEND WITH, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE DAILY STANDING RECORDS FOR MARCH 31
ARE 84 AT KCVG, 83 AT KCMH, AND 82 AT KDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INITIALLY N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA DRIFTS TO
THE ESE VERY CLOSE TO (OR PERHAPS INTO) THE NRN PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA BETWEEN 20Z-02Z. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR S/E THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT AS THE STORMS /MAY/ INITIATE
ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL IN
AROUND 18Z. HOWEVER, IF A STRONGER OUTFLOW IS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED
INTO CENTRAL IN, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LL CONVERGENCE (WITH SW SFC
FLOW) ALONGSIDE DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SB-INSTBY TO INITIATE ONE OR MORE
MINIATURE LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW. THIS
(VERY CONDITIONAL) THREAT WOULD EVOLVE E INTO THE LOCAL AREA,
PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NEAR/N OF THE OH RVR PAST ABOUT 20Z. THIS
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE FAVORED PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH OF
A LINE FROM NEAR WAYNE CO IN TO DARKE CO TO LICKING CO OH FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD BE A /VERY/ ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT (WITH
STEEP/DEEP LL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SB-INSTBY SUPPORTING GUSTY
WINDS) AND SMALL HAIL. THE MATERIALIZATION OF THIS LOCALIZED SEVERE
THREAT, HOWEVER, IS FAR FROM CERTAIN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER MISS THE LOCAL AREA TO THE N ALTOGETHER OR BE ON A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND (I.E. SUB-SEVERE) AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA, ESPECIALLY AS IT GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL OH BY EARLY
EVENING.
NO MATTER HOW THE SETUP MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING EVOLVES,
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE INTO PARTS OF WC AND CENTRAL OH
BY AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, SO DO THINK THAT
IF -- AND IT IS A BIG IF -- A VERY LOCALIZED/BRIEF SEVERE THREAT IS
TO EVOLVE LOCALLY TODAY, IT WOULD BE WITH THE ACTIVITY DISCUSSED
ABOVE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE S INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS S OF I-70 WILL LIKELY STAY DRY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DECREASING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
LINGERING IN THE NW THIRD OF THE LOCAL AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, DIGGING S/W ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL PROMOTE HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OH/TN VLYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LL FRONT TO STALL DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT (WHICH
WILL BE DRAPED SQUARELY ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
MIDDAY), THE FOCUS FOR LIFT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK, WITH DISORGANIZED ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS BETWEEN THE OH RVR AND I-70 BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE N/NW THIRD
OF THE ILN FA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EVEN WITH
SOME ISO/SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THE MORE-AMPLIFIED S/W WILL PIVOT INTO THE OH VLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXPANDING IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INCREASE INTO FAR WRN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY, WITH THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY BEING FORCED OVER THE CREST
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
FORCING SHOULD DECREASE A BIT LATER INTO THE NIGHT, SO THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY FURTHER E INTO THE LOCAL AREA INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NEAR/W OF I-71.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY. AT THIS JUNCTURE, IT SEEMS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1-2+" OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA, BUT THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DURING
THIS STRETCH. ANY PROLONGED PW ANOMALY OF 200+% WITH A PARADE OF
S/WS THROUGH THIS MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT IS CAUSE FOR AT LEAST
SOME CONCERN, ESPECIALLY AFTER A FAIRLY WET MARCH (RAINFALL 150%-200%
OF NORMAL) ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA. SO CERTAINLY SOME
LOCALIZED/BRIEF FLOODING POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE LATE WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND, OWING TO THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS (EVEN WITH
THE RELATIVELY- PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS).
AS THE WEATHER UNDERGOES A PATTERN CHANGE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
LIKELY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME 80S ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, THURSDAY, FRIDAY,
AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
COVERAGE OF VFR CU INCREASING INTO THE DAYTIME. SW SFC WINDS AROUND
12-15KTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-35KTS,
PAST 15Z. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT PAST 00Z, BUT WILL STAY UP AT
AROUND 5-10KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL THAT SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY GET CLOSE
TO, OR IMPACT, KDAY/KCMH/KLCK BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z-02Z, WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA WORKING INTO THESE AREAS TOWARD THE
PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROB30 HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING POTENTIAL, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA (AND ISO TS)
AFTER ABOUT 08Z OR SO. THE PCPN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR
KILN/KCVG/KLUK.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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