933
FXUS61 KILN 311801
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TODAYS WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO 80 DEGREES, WHICH
IS SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS THAT ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. WARM AIR
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW MAY LIFT CINCINNATI/COLUMBUS TOWARD RECORD HIGH
MINS FOR THURS MORNING.
2) A COLD FRONT LAYS OUT WSW-ENE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW, LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS THAT ARE IN THE LOWER
80S.
IF THE CU FIELD BREAKS UP SOON, READINGS MAY EKE A LITTLE CLOSER
TOWARDS THESE RECORDS. HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK IN FROM THE
WEST AND CONTINUE TO HAMPER DIRECT INSOLATION REGARDLESS OF LOSING
THE CU FIELD. TONIGHT'S TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO BE SHY OF RECORD HIGH
MINS, LIKELY DUE TO PRECIP OR AT A MINIMUM, EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT, POSSIBLY
BRINGING CINCINNATI/COLUMBUS TOWARD RECORD HIGH MINS WED NIGHT/
THURS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A COLD FRONT LAYS OUT WSW-ENE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW, LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND MAYBE ALL BUT NRN KY
TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WARMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. A
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY,
BRINGING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AS IT DOES.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW CLIMO AND SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT
ANOMALOUS THIS SPRING SEASON.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA AT DAYBREAK WED, WITH ITS
LOCATION NOTED AS A THIN LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS PUTS DAY
IN THE COLD AIR AND RAIN (WITH SOME INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY)
BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING OF STORMS AND ANY FOLLOWING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS IS IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL QUESTION, THUS LOW CONFIDENCE. CMH
AND LCK ARE IN A SIMILAR SITUATION BUT MODELS ARE GIVING THEM
SLIGHTLY LESS TIME IN THE PRECIP THAN AT DAY.
ILN IS A LITTLE MORE IFFY BUT STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRY OR
MVFR VSBYS IF SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURS THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR-IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT CVG/LUK, WHO MAY SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEGINNING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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