577
FXUS61 KILN 312350
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN OHIO UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED ORDER OF KEY MESSAGES FROM PREVIOUS AFD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WATCH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OHIO. DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT
LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
2) TODAYS WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO 80 DEGREES, WHICH
IS SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS THAT ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. WARM AIR
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW MAY LIFT CINCINNATI/COLUMBUS TOWARD RECORD HIGH
MINS FOR THURS MORNING.
3) A COLD FRONT LAYS OUT WSW-ENE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW, LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK BETWEEN
40-50 KNOTS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH AND IF THEY WILL REMAIN
SEVERE THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENING. THE LACK OF HEIGHT-FALLS DO NOT
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE GIVEN THE LINGERING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS THAT ARE IN THE LOWER
80S.
IF THE CU FIELD BREAKS UP SOON, READINGS MAY EKE A LITTLE CLOSER
TOWARDS THESE RECORDS. HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK IN FROM THE
WEST AND CONTINUE TO HAMPER DIRECT INSOLATION REGARDLESS OF LOSING
THE CU FIELD. TONIGHT'S TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO BE SHY OF RECORD HIGH
MINS, LIKELY DUE TO PRECIP OR AT A MINIMUM, EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT, POSSIBLY
BRINGING CINCINNATI/COLUMBUS TOWARD RECORD HIGH MINS WED NIGHT/
THURS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
A COLD FRONT LAYS OUT WSW-ENE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW, LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND MAYBE ALL BUT NRN KY
TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WARMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. A
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY,
BRINGING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AS IT DOES.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW CLIMO AND SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT
ANOMALOUS THIS SPRING SEASON.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, PUSHING THROUGH AREA
TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY STALL
FOR A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS RESIST
THE SOUTHERN PUSH. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE COMPLICATES THE OVERALL
WIND FORECAST AS SOUTHWEST WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME LOCAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE WILL
VARY. OPTED FOR PREVAILING GROUPS OVER PROB30S/TEMPOS GIVEN THE
LARGE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHERE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT.
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES, EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CVG/LUK, HOWEVER, SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES THE LONGEST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT, MORE OPTIMISTIC
CIGS ARE USED FOR CVG/LUK.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS/MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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