465
FXUS61 KILN 010224
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1024 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT LAYS OUT WSW-ENE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW, LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A COLD FRONT LAYS OUT WSW-ENE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW, LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT AND MAYBE ALL BUT NRN KY
TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WARMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. A
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY,
BRINGING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AS IT DOES.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW CLIMO AND SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT
ANOMALOUS THIS SPRING SEASON.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, PUSHING THROUGH AREA
TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY STALL
FOR A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS RESIST
THE SOUTHERN PUSH. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE COMPLICATES THE OVERALL
WIND FORECAST AS SOUTHWEST WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME LOCAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE WILL
VARY. OPTED FOR PREVAILING GROUPS OVER PROB30S/TEMPOS GIVEN THE
LARGE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHERE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT.
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES, EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CVG/LUK, HOWEVER, SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES THE LONGEST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT, MORE OPTIMISTIC
CIGS ARE USED FOR CVG/LUK.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page