063
FXUS61 KILN 011700
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
100 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS A
FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
2) THE WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE FRONT IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE
OBS AS WELL AS ON RADAR, LOCATED JUST NORTH OF ILN ATTM. MUCH COOLER
AIR AND STRATUS IS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH AREAS ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTH ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, TO
THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES CURRENTLY AROUND 1000
J/KG OR SO ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
A WEAK MESO-VORT IS EVIDENT ON AREA RADARS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST, EXPECT
SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR
SOUTH, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH BULK
SHEAR ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE, A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, ALTHOUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY, IT WILL ALSO BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT. WITH OUR
REGION BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST MAINLY DRY BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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