475
FXUS61 KILN 020018
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
818 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. IT WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT.
WITH OUR REGION BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. WILL KEEP FORECAST MAINLY DRY BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, CHANGING
WIND DIRECTIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT THERE IS NO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BREAK.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF. WIND
GUSTS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, AND MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS DECREASE AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL/MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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