072
FXUS61 KILN 020624
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
224 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD-
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES TO MATCH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) COLDER WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FROST MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING AND A FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS ENDING BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE WARM SECTOR RETURNS. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS, COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR
INSOLATION DURING THE DAY, WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH AT
TIMES.
MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEKEND.
FIRST MAJOR IMPULSE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
IMPULSE.
ANOTHER, STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND FLOW TO THE POINT OF BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER, DRIER WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A
CHANCE FOR FROST MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. IF WINDS CAN
DROP OFF ENOUGH, FROST WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE COLDEST MORNING
OF THE PERIOD ARRIVES WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COMPLEX WEATHER TO START THE TAF PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST, THEN SOUTH.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TAFS, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LOW. WILL LIMIT THE
VISIBILITY TO 3-5 MILES FOR NOW, BUT CERTAINLY THERE'S A CHANCE OF A
SHORT WINDOW OF LESS THAN 2 MILES JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND START TO GUST
TODAY. HAVE BUMPED UP THE GUSTS TOWARD THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN 30+ KNOTS AT TIMES. THIS UPPER END IS
ASSISTING BY SOLAR INSOLATION SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STAY WEST OF OUR AREA TODAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...
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