592
FXUS61 KILN 030623
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
223 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THREAT INCREASED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE STORM THREAT HAS INCREASED
2) COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANGES WX PATTERN TO COOL
AND DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH FROST POSSIBLE
SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET, A FEW WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH COULD MIX DOWN IN THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE PREDOMINANT
WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 MPH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH SOME HEATING AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, OUR AREA WILL BE
ENTIRELY WARM SECTORED. AT THIS JUNCTURE, IT APPEARS POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (4.9 C/KM 700-500MB ON THE 00Z HRRR) WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY TO AROUND 1000J. HOWEVER, WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
NEARLY 40 KNOTS AND DECENT FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FROST POTENTIAL SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND SKY COVER
EACH NIGHT. OVERALL, THE COLD NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT INITIALLY WILL BE INFREQUENT GUSTY WINDS WITH
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. BEYOND THIS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS FOR NOW
BUT MAY NEED TO ADD TS TO THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE NEXT ISSUANCE IF
CONFIDENT IMPROVES. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT BEHIND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COINCIDENT WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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