278
FXUS61 KILN 032345
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
745 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A DEEPENING LOW OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY OCCLUDING AND REACHING THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR
EAST OF THE LOW DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH WARM, HUMID, BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION
AND COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPORADIC DUE TO LACK OF FORCING TODAY. A
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF ANY STRONGER STORMS
FORM.
FOR SATURDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH AT LEAST 80 FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-71 ALONG WITH LOWER 60S DEW POINTS. HOWEVER, BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
STRENGTHENING SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
COULD INCREASE STORM INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR END UP OVERLAPPING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO RISK MAY
ALSO INCREASE IF SHEAR DOES END UP OVERLAPPING STORMS A BIT BETTER
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-71 LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING LATE IN THE EVENING WHEN
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. THE STORM THREAT ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALLOWS NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST TO START
THE WEEK. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT, AND TUESDAY
NIGHT DEPENDING ON SKY CONDITIONS AND WIND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
DAY/CMH/LCK, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT A MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN THE LOWER
PROBABILITY. OTHERWISE, THE FRONT TO THE NORTH MEANS SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
TOMORROW, THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION, INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH REGULAR GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM/RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, HAVE TIMED OUT POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A PROB30 WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
MAY FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 00Z, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
WEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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