100
FXUS61 KILN 041030
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
2) COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BRING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN A FREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN
ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW, AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CURRENTLY POINT TOWARD SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE, WARMER TEMPERATURES ABOVE 600MB LEAD TO MODEST SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY OF AROUND OR LESS THAN 1000J. IN ADDITION, THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW A BIT LESS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR -- AROUND 30-35
KNOTS -- WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HODOGRAPHS
ARE GENERALLY STRAIGHT THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. BASED ON THIS LATEST
INFORMATION, THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS APPEARS
TO REMAIN STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE CONVECTION WITH WINDS
SHIFTING WESTERLY AFTER 8PM OR SO. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S BY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY, IT'S LIKELY WINDS WILL KEEP FROST VERY PATCHY SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF FROST WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WARMER CONDITIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THE 12Z TAF UPDATE. MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE STORMS FORM, THERE MAY ARISE THE NEED
FOR AN AMENDMENT IN ORDER TO TIME OUT ANY STORM-BASED WIND GUST
POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING,
WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME DURING THE EXTENDED TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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