228
FXUS61 KILN 042059
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
459 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE WESTERN PART OF WATCH 97.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BRINGING COLDER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A FREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
UPDATE (4:55 PM) STORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OHIO RUNNING JUST BEHIND THE MORE FAVORABLE DCAPE ENVIRONMENT. HAVE
CLEARED 7 COUNTIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 97. HAVE KEPT THE WATCH UP ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO - INCLUDING THE
CMH METRO AREA BUT THE THREAT HERE LOOKS DIMINISHED. THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD SEVERE STORM.
OBSERVING WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND INTO EXTREME WESTERN OHIO. HAVE BUMPED UP
WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
BLENDED IN LATEST HRRR WIND GUSTS TO CURRENT FORECAST TO OBTAIN THIS
SOLUTION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST....
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH INDIANA. THIS LEAVES THE CWA IN A WARM
SECTOR, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF/OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH UP TO 40 MPH.
REGARDING CONVECTION, MAINLY SHOWERS HAD MOVED INTO EASTERN
INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO AT 18Z ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN PART CROSSING
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO HAS HAD SOME LIGHTNING AND WAS LIKELY
TRANSPORTING SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
AND MAY INTENSIFY PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. IN ADDITION, NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR UPSTREAM, ULTIMATELY MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE CWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR THE SEVERE RISK, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT ARE
ALSO DECENT AND MAY SUPPORT BETTER STORM
DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH WITH TIME. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD WANE BY MID EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING COLDER/DRIER AIR.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FROST
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME WIND MAY SERVE TO INHIBIT FROST IN MANY
AREAS. DESPITE WIND, FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING AT ALL TAF SITES, AND WIND GUSTS AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN INITIAL AREA OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS THAT COULD
BEGIN AFFECTING KCVG-LUK-KDAY AREAS BY 19-20Z. HOWEVER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
CLOSER TO A COLD FRONT, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST TAFS. ANY
STRONGER STORMS CAN PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
THIS EVENING. ANY MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT, AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPP/AR
AVIATION...BPP
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