449
FXUS61 KILN 042359
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
759 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED ALL OF WATCH 97.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS THIS AND EVENING, WITH GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BRINGING COLDER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A FREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
UPDATE (7:58 PM) STORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROF HAVE MOVED OUT OF
CENTRAL OHIO. WITH STORMS OUT OF THE WATCH HAVE CLEARED ILN/S ENTIRE
AREA FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97.
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS TO 40-50 MPH THRU THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BLENDED IN LATEST HRRR WIND GUSTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO OBTAIN THIS SOLUTION. BEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS WHICH
WILL AID MIXING SOME OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
FARTHER SOUTH - WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS FORECAST....
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH INDIANA. THIS LEAVES THE CWA IN A WARM
SECTOR, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF/OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH UP TO 40 MPH.
REGARDING CONVECTION, MAINLY SHOWERS HAD MOVED INTO EASTERN
INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO AT 18Z ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN PART CROSSING
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO HAS HAD SOME LIGHTNING AND WAS LIKELY
TRANSPORTING SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
AND MAY INTENSIFY PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. IN ADDITION, NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR UPSTREAM, ULTIMATELY MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE CWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR THE SEVERE RISK, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT ARE
ALSO DECENT AND MAY SUPPORT BETTER STORM
DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH WITH TIME. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD WANE BY MID EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING COLDER/DRIER AIR.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FROST
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME WIND MAY SERVE TO INHIBIT FROST IN MANY
AREAS. DESPITE WIND, FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THRU THE TAF SITES THRU LATE
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT VFR CIGS
AROUND 3500 FEET TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME OVERNIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS LIKELY SUNDAY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPP/AR
AVIATION...AR
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