226
FXUS61 KILN 072332
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
732 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE LOCAL AREA, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
TRI-STATE INTO SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN WEST-
CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE
COLD.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AND EXTEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH ONLY A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, AND NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY LL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED AREA-WIDE. THIS SETUP, ALONG
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT, WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, HELPING TEMPS IN
RURAL/SHELTERED AREAS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS IS MOST
FAVORED IN PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OH INTO
NE KY WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN THE CLEAREST THE LONGEST. HOWEVER,
SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD W/SW PARTS OF THE ILN FA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE WIND STAYING UP AT
ABOUT 5-7KTS, MAY KEEP PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE INTO NRN KY ABOVE
FREEZING. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THESE FACTORS, TEMPS MAY STILL DIP TO
NEAR FREEZING PRIOR TO TEMPS PLATEAUING OR NOSING UP A FEW DEGREES
JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE MAINTENANCE OF THE WIND MAY INHIBIT SOME
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT SHELTERED AND THEREFORE
ARE NOT ABLE TO DECOUPLE.
THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AGAIN THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
FOLLOWING THE FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, A RAPID CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD, ALLOWING
FOR A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE OH VLY MIDWEEK AND
BEYOND. MIDLEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY, EVEN
AS A WEAK FRONT ATTEMPTS TO DRIFT S INTO NRN PARTS OF THE REGION BY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MORE PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN BY THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING /MUCH/ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
BY SUNDAY/MONDAY, THE ILN FA WILL LIKELY HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
80S YET AGAIN, WHICH WILL BE ~20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.
DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH, PWS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
LOCALLY, SUGGESTING THAT ANY RAIN CHANCES ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ISO IN NATURE. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS AND QUICKLY PIVOTS BACK TO
THE N FRIDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING
RELATIVELY LOW PWS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
SUGGESTING WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LOCALLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A S/W AND ASSOCIATED FRONT FROM THE MID
MS RVR VLY.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY, WITH SEVERAL DAYS WITH
DAILY AVERAGES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-078>082-088.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ077.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ099-100.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ089>098.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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