750
FXUS61 KILN 081005
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
605 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
2) SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BUT A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
FROST DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN PATCHY THIS MORNING GIVEN THE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, LATEST OBS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, SO MANY
LOCATIONS ARE AT RISK OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES TO THE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE OHIO VALLEY QUICKLY BREAKS OUT OF THE SEASONABLY COOL PATTERN
TODAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES USHER IN A
WARMER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S
TODAY, WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PRIMARILY DRY
AIR MASS REMAINING INTACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWATS OF 0.5" OR LESS
ARE IN PLACE MIDWEEK, SLIGHTLY INCREASING TO NEAR 1.0" ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A PASSING
SHOWER AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT THUNDER POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. POPS HAVE INCREASED AS
MORE MODELS ARE INITIALIZING PRECIP, BUT OVERALL QPF REMAINS
UNIMPRESSIVE.
PWATS QUICKLY DROP BACK TO NEAR 0.5" OR BELOW FOR THE WEEKEND. LOWER
H5 HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY WILL SUPPRESS DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT, BUT
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70
ACROSS THE CWA. THE H5 RIDGE BECOMES AMPLIFIED ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING 80+ DEGREES, WHICH WOULD BE ~20 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNING TUESDAY.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SPILL IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSOLVING
THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST THIS MORNING BUT
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS
OR SO IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
CONTINUED A MENTION OF LLWS TONIGHT AT KCVG, ADDING IT FOR KLUK AND
KDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-078>082-088.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ077.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ099-100.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>098.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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