804
FXUS61 KILN 110648
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
248 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAINFALL CHANCES RESUMING MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. CLOUDS LINGER THE
LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN
CONUS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH, ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25
TO 30 PERCENT OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO RIVER
VALLEY.
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH
DAY DURING THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE MOISTURE DOES INCREASE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT EACH DAY LACKS A SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM,
WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
A MOIST AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN EAST AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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