930
FXUS61 KILN 111038
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAINFALL CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. CLOUDS LINGER THE
LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN
CONUS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH. ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY.
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH
DAY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SURFACE MOISTURE DOES INCREASE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT EACH DAY LACKS A SIGNIFICANT FORCING
MECHANISM, WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
A MOIST AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO
THE REGION.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY BECOME EAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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