950
FXUS61 KILN 111812
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC TO
NORTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT, RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A BROAD MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS,
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY.
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH
DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SURFACE MOISTURE DOES INCREASE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT EACH DAY LACKS A SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM,
WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, A
MOIST AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE BEST WINDOWS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE EARLY
MONDAY, TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY RIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. NEXT WEEKEND
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL
SOLUTION SPREAD REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOVING INTO SUNDAY, THE MAIN AVIATION STORY
WILL BE THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY
BECOME SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN, BY THE
AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL WITH GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT TAF, WITH THE ARRIVAL SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/GUSEMAN
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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