086
FXUS61 KILN 122239
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE ONSET OF THE UPCOMING WARM PERIOD HAS BEGUN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT, A
WEAK SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS BEFORE DAYBREAK, BUT
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF THE WINDS CAN REACH THE SURFACE. THIS
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTERRUPTS THE
SUNSHINE ON MONDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED INTO MID-WEEK AS A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTY, NBM POPS WERE A BIT HIGHER THAN DESIRED AND WERE
THEREFORE LOWERED AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES NORTH
OF THE AREA.
DESPITE THE LOWER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER, A MOIST AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS WHEN THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES, DUE TO A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO PLACE, WITH ATTENTION
SHIFTING TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LLWS
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL ALSO BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY MORNING. SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
30 KNOT RANGE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS. ONCE THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF, MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...JGL
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